Referenced Stocks:
BAYRY,
JPM,
NVS,
REGN
We continue to have a Neutral recommendation on
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.
(
REGN
) following the appraisal of fourth quarter and full-year 2011
results.
Regeneron suffered a wider year-over-year loss in the final
quarter of 2011. The wider loss was attributable to higher
operating expenses and lower revenues. (Read our full coverage of
the earnings report at
Regeneron's Loss Widens, Eylea Grows
).
Going forward, we expect investor focus to be on the sales ramp
of eye-drug, Eylea, which was launched in the US in November 2011.
Eylea, marketed for treating patients suffering from the
neovascular form of age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD),
registered sales of $24.8 million in the final quarter of 2011.
Encouraged by the initial sales ramp and the increased demand
for the drug, which has been co-developed by Regeneron with the
HealthCare unit of
Bayer
(
BAYRY
), management nearly doubled its 2012 projected Eylea sales to
$250-$300 million on the fourth quarter conference call from
$140-$160 million provided at the global healthcare conference of
JPMorgan
(
JPM
) in January 2012. We too expect Eylea to continue performing well
thereby boosting the top line at Regeneron.
Moreover, the US approval of Eylea has provided additional
options for patients suffering from the eye-disease, which
currently has limited treatment options.
Roche/Novartis
' (
RHHBY
/
NVS
) Lucentis is the key player in the wet AMD market. Eylea is under
review for the wet AMD in other markets as well such as Japan and
the EU. Approval in additional markets would strengthen Regeneron's
top line further.
2012 is expected to be a key year for Regeneron with two key
action dates coming up as it seeks to expand the labels of both its
marketed drugs, Arcalyst (currently marketed for
cryopyrin-associated periodic syndromes) and Eylea.
The FDA is expected to decide on Regeneron's marketing
application to get Arcalyst approved for preventing gout flares in
patients initiating uric acid-lowering therapy by July 30, 2012.
The agency will decide on Regeneron's application to get Eylea
cleared for the central retinal vein occlusion indication by
September 23, 2012. Moreover, we are also impressed by Regeneron's
efforts to develop the other candidates in its pipeline.
However, we prefer to adopt a wait-and-see approach if Eylea
meets management expectations and realizes its commercial
potential. Moreover, since multiple pipeline related news is
expected in 2012, any negative news will pull down the stock.
Consequently, we believe the stock to be fairly valued at current
levels and hence retain our Neutral view on it.
BAYER A G -ADR (
BAYRY
): Free Stock Analysis Report
JPMORGAN CHASE (
JPM
): Free Stock Analysis Report
NOVARTIS AG-ADR (
NVS
): Free Stock Analysis Report
REGENERON PHARM (
REGN
): Free Stock Analysis Report
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