Submitted by
Sizemore
Investment Letter
as part of our
contributors
program
The February 13 issue of
Barron's
made a statement that caught my eye:
Americans are paying down their mortgages.
(See "
Paying Down the Mortgage
.")
50% of all refinancings now result in
smaller
loans that the previous mortgage. Rather than using their
homes as a virtual ATM machine, extracting equity (if you have any)
to meet current expenses, Americans are actually retiring their
mortgage debt early. It's a remarkable change in behavior for
a nation of consumers who, just a few short years ago, had a
well-deserved reputation for wanton frivolity in their personal
finances.
As
Barron's
pointed out, paying down your mortgage at, say, 4% can be
considered an "investment" when bonds yield barely 2%. But
more than this, it is a change in sentiment brought about by
changing demographics. America's Baby Boomers, the largest
and richest generation in history, are entering a new phase of
their lives. With retirement approaching fast, the Boomers
are adopting the fiscal habits their parents were known for.
(We all eventually become our parents; it just took the Boomers a
little longer than past generations.)
The Boomers are the engine that has made the U.S. economy (and
by proxy world economy) go over the past 30 years, and their
reticence to spend will have a real impact on economic growth.
What does this mean for investors? Surprisingly, the news
isn't
all
bad.
True enough, top-line revenue growth for companies that depend
heavily on the American market will almost certainly be modest in
the decade ahead. Earnings per share growth, where it
happens, will have to come from share count reductions through
stock buybacks and from revenue growth in emerging markets.
The good news is that investors can still make a decent profit
under these conditions, assuming they choose their investments
wisely and pay a reasonable price. With less need to expand
their businesses, many American companies are finding themselves
with unprecedented levels of cash on hand. Some-such as notorious
tightwad
Apple ($AAPL)-
are simply stockpiling the cash (Apple's cash balance is estimated
to be an astonishing $100 billion).
But others, including Apple's rival
Microsoft ($MSFT)
, are using their excess cash to reward their shareholders with
share buybacks and, even better, dividends. Microsoft raised
its dividend by a full 25% last year, and more increases are
expected in 2012.
A better example might be that of tobacco "sin stocks."
Unlike Apple and Microsoft, which still have robust and growing
demand for their products, American tobacco firms have faced
slowing demand for their products for decades. But with no
need to spend cash on investment and no need to advertise, tobacco
stocks have still proven to be fantastic investments, with total
returns beating the sox off the S&P 500 over the past
decade. And nearly all of this is due to their rock-solid
dividends.
I consider dividends to be the key to profitable investing in
the years ahead. There will be periods when speculative
growth stocks are more attractive, and we happen to be one this
quarter (see
"Sin Stocks Trail Their More Virtuous Peers"
as an example). But for the core of your portfolio, stable,
dividend-paying stocks are an attractive option in a world of slow
growth and bond yields of just 2%.
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