Stocks will likely struggle for direction given the absence of
any positive catalysts that can push them to new highs. Greece will
remain in the news, as the country suffered a credit rating
downgrade from Fitch following the release of details about the
private sector debt swap. There is growing unease in the market
that while the latest deal may have averted the possibility of a
disruptive near-term default, but it is not expected to provide the
last word on the country's struggles to stay within the union
either.
Greece's bond swap with its private creditors will help bring
down its debt load by €107 billion. This is accomplished by forcing
bond holders to accept a 53.5% loss on the face value of their
holdings. This bond swap, coupled with a tough new austerity
package that the country had to agree to implement as a price for a
second bailout, will reduce its level of indebtedness from the
current 164% of GDP to around 120% by 2020. But many in the market
are justifiably skeptical of these estimates from IMF, which is a
party to the bailout.
In addition to a host of assumptions about privatization
proceeds and the direction of interest rates, the IMF forecast for
2020 depends on the Greek economy growing at over 2% annually over
the next seven years after staying flat this year. Please keep in
mind that Greek economy has been in a recession over the last four
years that has resulted in the economy shrinking in excess of a
cumulative 16% in that time period. Given the severity of the new
austerity measures that accompanied the latest bailout deal, the
economy is more likely to remain in the red for quite some
time.
On the earnings front, luxury homebuilder
Toll Brothers
(
TOL
) came out with weaker than expected results this morning.
Dell
(
DELL
) came modestly short of EPS expectations after the close on
Tuesday and also provided weak guidance for the current quarter.
Brocade Communications
(
BRCD
) came out with better than expected results.
Hewlett-Packard
(
HP
) reports after the close today.
Existing Home Sales
are scheduled for release today at 10:00 AM EST. Our consensus
estimate shows this indicator is expected to increase to 5 million
from the annual pace of 4.61 million reported in December.
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