Today's market action will reflect optimism about the European
situation following the weekend deal for Greece. The deal removes
the possibility of a near-term disorderly Greek default that had
emerged as a key possibility in recent days. With the domestic
economic calendar today lacking anything substantive, it will be
interesting to see if the favorable European news will be enough to
push the Dow above the 13,000 mark today.
Greece finally got the deal, which not only provides for a fresh
€130 billion bailout, but also requires the country's private
creditors to take greater losses on their Greek bond holdings. A
lot of details still need to be worked out, but the bottom line is
that the enhanced haircuts on private sector Greek bonds will bring
down the country's debt load from the current 164% to around 120%
in 2020.
The Greek government will be announcing details of the
private-sector bond swap in the coming days that requires 100%
participation from the bondholders. For every €100 in face value of
bonds tendered, the bond holders will get newly issued long-term
Greek government bonds with a face value of €31.5 and short-term
bonds issued by the EFSF for a face value of €15.
In exchange for the fresh bailout, Greece has agreed to provide
constitutional guarantees to prioritize paying back the new debt
over its regular government spending programs. The country has also
effectively bartered away its financial sovereignty by allowing for
permanent and enhanced external oversight over its financial
decision making.
The country is now required to implement a touchy and deeply
unpopular austerity program that will push the economy deeper into
recession. This deal addresses the Greek problem for now, but to
expect that the issue has been taken off the table for good may be
too optimistic. Greece will remain shut out of the markets for
years to come and will most likely need another bailout sooner
rather later.
In corporate news,
Wal-Mart
(
WMT
) came out with better-than-expected earnings, though it came short
of revenue expectations and provides a less than robust outlook.
Home Depot
(
HD
) handily beat expectations, while
Kraft
(
KFT
) came in-line.
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