Most retail investors remain confident in the long-term strength
of the economy despite two years of rollercoaster volatility and
heavy losses, according to a new Center for Audit Quality survey of
1,001 investors.
The fourth annual survey found that 84% of investors were
confident in the market in 2007, before the crash. However, while
confidence fell "precipitously" to 70% in 2008, investors have
stuck at that level since then: 2009 saw an uptick to 73% and while
this year's 68% is a drop, it's not a very big one.
Wealthy investors, those with $100,000 or more to invest, are
even more chipper about growth opportunities and 74% say they're
confident in the market.
Interestingly, reasons for investors' confidence have shifted
slightly from last year to now. In 2009, 40% of investors were
heartened by economic data and stories they'd read, while 31% put
their faith in the government's recovery plan. This year, economic
reports and Washington's plans both dropped 9% to 31% and 22%,
respectively; investors are picking up their good vibes from other
places. It didn't show up last year, but 15% of investors are now
sure the recession is at least ending, if not over, and 15% of
investors cite their own impression of market strength (up 3% since
2009), rather than relying on experts' prognostications. That said,
many investors still back the information they get from advisors
and journalists. Some 86% of investors say financial advisors'
advice is at least somewhat useful and 81% of investors say the
same about the press.
"They make investment decisions based on what they read in the
news," says Cindy Fornelli, executive director of CAQ in
Washington, D.C. "They're a little more wary, but they're more
trusting of themselves."
The bullishness some investors express is tempered by those
still squeamish about market volatility, though. When asked about
the biggest threat to market stability, 27% said either government
spending or interference, and 23% of respondents fear the recession
is still in full swing. Weak government leadership (15%), market
volatility (10%) and a weak job market (6%) also remain bear
traps.
Fornelli notes that the proportion of investors still backing
the government and those who think politicians are getting too
involved is more or less equal. "It's split across party lines,"
which indicates that media speculation that investors are angry
with incumbents in general may be false. What does seem to be
universal, though, is investors' weariness from waiting out the
recovery. "It's been a long cycle, a long recovery," Fornelli says.
"And we're still not there yet."