While it's not back on its feet yet, the U.S. economy is proving
more resilient than many naysayers predicted, according to
September's
Monthly Outlook
from Wells Fargo's economics group.
If modest gains in July and August turn out to be an upward
trend, which Wells Fargo deems likely, GDP will follow suit. While
it is currently weak, at 1.6% in the second quarter, that growth
should compensate in part for the government's stimulus packages,
which are now winding down and will soon be gone.
Meanwhile, business fixed investment rose "solidly" in the
second quarter and consumer spending and savings rates are also on
the rise.
Wells expects the 1.6% GDP growth rate to hold steady for the
remainder of the year, but will pick up speed in 2011, so long as
the Federal Reserve doesn't raise interest rates.
While a double dip is unlikely in the U.S., Wells is calling on
the government for a few more sandbags. "We have never been in the
double-dip camp," its analysts write, but the shift from stimulus
support to private sector growth could be a bumpy ride. "The
increased risks of a double dip should prompt additional monetary
and fiscal stimulus [sic], not because the economy is backsliding
but rather because the consequences of a second economic slump
would be so costly to counteract."
Globally, though, a double dip is more likely, particularly in
Japan, although it won't happen so long as Asia "remains buoyant,"
the report says. Unlike Europe and the U.S., Asia didn't spend the
past decade miring itself in debt, so its banking systems remain
healthy and credit is still flowing freely.
Meanwhile, Europe's labor market is now stable, which should
positively impact consumer spending, and the region seems to have
narrowly sidestepped another downturn.
Latin American economies remain the healthiest of the lot. They
weren't overly leveraged before the crash, they're enjoying strong
economic growth and the risk of recession in the region is low,
Wells says.