Affluent investors ended the first half of the year on a sour
note, their confidence slipping seven points to negative-12 on the
Spectrem Group's Affluent Investor Confidence Index, but advisors
counter that falling confidence is an opportunity rather than a
challenge.
The last time affluent investors' confidence fell so far so fast
was in June 2009, when the index dropped by eight points. This
June's drop means investors with between $500,000 and $1 million to
invest are feeling bearish.
Millionaires, too, lack confidence in the investment climate,
their index dropping six points to negative-7. So while all wealthy
investors are worried about their accounts, richer clients are less
worried.
At 26% (29% for millionaires), the political climate is what
worries wealthy investors the most, particularly uncertainty about
future tax hikes and the potential impact of the nation's bloated
deficit, says George Walper, president of the Spectrem Group in
Chicago. Other prominent concerns include the economy (24%), market
conditions (10%), unemployment (5%), inflation (4%) and
health-related issues (3%).
All this worry is a clear call to advisors to expect gloomy
clients, but Walper says it's not all bad news. "This is an
opportunity," he says. "Make sure you understand your clients'
psychological feeling about the market and Washington, listen to
that and build solutions for them," be that through additional
financial planning or simply tweaking their portfolios to assuage
clients' fears. "People are shifting toward far more conservative
investment strategies." Walper says. "The definition of that is in
the eyes of clients, which is why it's so important to really know
your clients well."
Barry Jones, with Axa Advisors in Davison, Mich., agrees that
what seems like a negative is actually a positive for advisors.
"Market gyration is a great reason to sit down with clients to
articulate what's going on," he says. "A lot of people are keeping
their money on the sidelines."
The goal is to get them to move that money into a relatively
safe investment strategy that will reward clients far more than the
CDs and money market funds many of them are holding out in. For the
past eight months, Jones has been talking to clients about Curian's
dynamic risk account, a seesaw consisting of one to three-year
Treasuries on one side and a basket of global equities, commodities
and emerging market debt exchange-traded funds, among other things.
Jones says that when the portfolio falls any more than 1.2%, assets
are shifted to Treasuries. If it gains by 1.4%, then assets are
shifted from Treasuries to growth. Almost 10% of Jones's $60
million book is now with Curian, which Jones combines with
annuities for guaranteed income and pools of "sometime" money in
long-term growth strategies.
Maris Ogg, president of Tower Bridge Advisors in West
Conshohocken, Pa., also seesaws between market exposure and safety,
depending on how the market is acting. She says most of her firm's
clients fall into the 60:40 to 40:60 ratio of stocks to bonds. The
firm uses a proprietary but "simple" market indicator that uses
factors such as bond yields, earnings yields and risk premiums to
figure out whether the current market is overpriced or underpriced
relative to the past 25 years. Right now, she says, the market was
only more undervalued 25% of the time, making it a buyer's market.
Typically, "we'll pull back when stocks go up," i.e. sell them, and
move the money to cash until a suitable bargain emerges or hedge
against sudden slumps with puts and covered calls. Right now,
though, market volatility is making both advisors and clients
skittish, so they're holding back until prices stabilize. "With
volatility so high, all you can do is offer sympathy and keep
people calm," Ogg says. However, she notes that it's sometimes an
advisor's job to counter excessive client negativity. The market
will get more stable come November, when "there will be more of a
balance in Congress, and a stop to the anti-business agenda. The
underlying economic numbers are clearly moving in the right
direction," she says.
In short, just because investors are scared, that doesn't mean
they'll stay on the sidelines if an advisor can offer them a viable
alternative that could actually make them some money back. What
seems to work is active management that minimizes downside risk,
buys low and sells high. "This strategy works tremendously well in
a sideways market," Jones says. "I think we'll be stuck in it for a
long time, so it's very attractive to clients right now."