After receiving an MBA from Ohio State University in 1974, Maris
Ogg worked in the fast-paced, testosterone-laden world of trading
before moving to the analytical side at a bank trust company.
Now, as president and founding principal of her own financial
advisory firm Tower Bridge Advisors, she has a lesson to teach her
clients: watch and wait.
This approach may seem conservative when compared to her roots
on the trading desk, where her old-boys-network colleagues were out
every night drinking and had their own hooks for their coats at the
infamous Harry's Steakhouse near Wall Street, but Ogg learned a lot
during those years, including the belief that what matters most is
helping her clients sleep at night.
"The economy is just starting to transition from being
stimulated by the government to being self-sustaining," she said in
an interview last years. Despite what many would have Americans
believe, the financial industry is not back to normal. Until jobs
and housing sales get much stronger and small businesses begin
growing revenue and hiring again, investors can't breathe easy.
Yes, the stock market has bounced back from its lows during the
2008 financial crisis, but it isn't clear that the U.S. economy is
growing on its own.
For one thing, unemployment is still high and there is still a
shadow inventory of houses, Ogg said. And there is still a fervor
among investors bordering on the irrational.
Over the last couple of weeks the stock market has corrected
itself, something Ogg sees as a positive. The fact is that before
the recent stock market downturn stocks looked over-valued, she
said. The correction brought the market back into undervalued
territory, which, she said, is healthier.
"I think the market got ahead of itself, expectations got ahead
of themselves," she said. "We would expect that the recovery would
continue but I think people's expectations got a little high for
where we were in the cycle and the issues we are still facing."
The recent downturn of the last few weeks has spooked investors
and financial advisors are finding themselves doing a lot more hand
holding. "The decline of 2008 is still fresh in investors' minds,"
so they may sell stocks that advisors think they should hold
because they get scared. "My philosophy is that you have to be able
to sleep at night. You have to get clients to the point they can be
comfortable with their asset mix. This is a period in which it
takes some work on the part of advisors to help clients work
through what they're facing."
Counseling skills are key, she said. And advisors must call
their clients to keep calm their fears: "It's a good time to talk
things through."
The good news is that the stock market downturn has brought
equities back to an undervalued level. This means there is another
year or two of earnings gains, Ogg said. And companies are in great
shape.
Ogg doesn't believe the chaos in South Korea or Israel will have
a long-term affect on global markets, but she is concerned about
the level of debt in the United States and abroad. "In the long run
valuations will be impacted by the level of debt every country is
dealing with, including the U.S.," she said.
Ogg foresees inflation as well as slower growth in the next five
years as the U.S. government starts printing money to pay down its
debt with cheaper dollars. The result: those that will retire in
the next five years will get hit hard by inflation. We are already
seeing the warning signs, she said, with commodity prices rising.
"That is really hard for those living on a fixed income," she
said.
Ogg said that she expects a turning point in the next 12 months
as yields rise, making the equity market seem more attractive. "The
difficulty right now is that interest rates are so low that people
are trying to invest to make income so they are investing down in
quality or towards equities and they get pushed towards taking more
risks because the near term returns of money market funds are so
meager," she said. "All of these strategies add more risk to
portfolios. Advisors need to really try to have a balance and try
to grow income and not have too much risk."
The next five years will bring lots of changes from a yield
standpoint, from an inflation standpoint, and from a market
standpoint: "It's important for advisors to stay on top of these
moves so they can shift portfolios accordingly," she said.
This leaves a lot on advisors' plates right now. "The old
buy-and-hold probably won't work this time," Ogg said.