Not long ago, the great Warren Buffett said in an interview that
"investing is simple, but it's not easy". If that sounds confusing,
all you need to do is look at the investing style of Joel
Greenblatt to understand exactly what Buffett means.
Back in 2005, Greenblatt, a successful hedge fund manager,
published The Little Book that Beats the Market, a small, concise
book that shows how investors can produce market-beating returns
using a formula that has two -- and only two -- variables.
In an investing world of seemingly limitless data points, that may
sound improbable. But it's not. Greenblatt's "magic formula", as he
called it, produced back-tested returns of 30.8% per year from 1988
through 2004, more than doubling the S&P 500's 12.4% return
during that time. What's more, a 10-stock portfolio picked using my
Greenblatt-inspired Guru Strategy computer model has averaged an
annual return of 9.3 in the four years since its inception -- while
the S&P 500 has been losing 3.9 per year. Last year alone, the
portfolio was up 63.1%.
How does the Greenblatt approach work? On a broad level, it's based
on a very simple, sensible, Buffett-esque notion of Greenblatt's:
"Buying good companies at bargain prices makes sense."
To identify "good companies", Greenblatt uses the first variable of
his "magic formula": return on capital. Essentially, ROC is a way
to see how much money a company is making by using its assets. The
higher the ROC, the better job the company is doing in terms of
making profits.
Return on capital is similar, but not identical, to the return on
assets rate that Buffett and other gurus like Peter Lynch use.
Rather than using a company's reported earnings, as is done when
calculating ROA, however, Greenblatt (and the model I base on his
writings) uses earnings before interest and taxes (
EBIT
), so that debt payments and taxes don't obscure how well the
firm's actual operating business is doing. And instead of dividing
that by total assets, as ROA does, he divides it by "tangible
capital employed," which is equal to net working capital plus net
fixed assets. "The idea here," he writes, "was to figure out how
much capital is actually needed to conduct the company's business."
The second part of the Greenblatt approach is finding those good
stocks when they are selling at "bargain prices". To do so,
Greenblatt (and my model) uses earnings yield. Typically, earnings
yield is calculated by dividing a company's trailing 12-month
earnings per share by its current price per share -- essentially
the inverse of the price/earnings ratio. But Greenblatt also makes
some slight adjustments here, so my model does the same. Rather
than earnings, EBIT is used, and rather than price, "enterprise
value" is used. Enterprise value includes not only the price of the
company's shares, but also the amount of debt it uses to generate
earnings.
My Greenblatt-inspired model ranks all stocks in earnings yield and
return on total capital, and then adds the rankings together to get
the stock's final ranking. The ten stocks with the best combined
rankings make it into my Greenblatt-based portfolio.
Simple? Yes. Easy? No.
Sounds easy, right? Not really -- remember what Buffett says about
"easy" and "simple" being two different things.
The difficulty of the Greenblatt approach comes not in the
logistics or specifics, but instead with mindset. That's because
while the strategy has been proven to work very well over the long
term, it doesn't work all the time. In fact, the magic formula has
had periods of two or even three years when it has lagged the
market, Greenblatt notes -- not unlike just about any good
strategy. When that happens, he says, most investors bail, jumping
on the latest "hot" stocks or strategies -- which usually lands
them overpriced duds.
Their abandonment of the magic formula approach is, however, what
allows you to buy at bargain prices the strong stocks that the
strategy targets -- if, that is, you have the intestinal fortitude
to stick with the strategy through the short-term pain. That's the
hard part. If you do, you should reap the rewards when Wall Street
realizes it's overlooked these strong companies. Knowing all of
this -- and in particular knowing that you can't predict when those
down periods and bounce-backs will come -- Greenblatt says it's
absolutely critical to stick with the strategy through the rough
times. In the end, his approach, like Buffett's, is really based on
common sense and discipline -- not magic.
Right now, my Greenblatt-based approach is finding a number of
attractive bargains. Here are three that currently rank high on its
list:
Amedisys, Inc. (
AMED
):
This Baton Rouge-based home health care and hospice services
provider ($670 million market cap) ranks as the third-best stock in
the market, according to my Greenblatt approach. It has a strong
earnings yield of 16.6% (which ranks #47 of all stocks the market)
and an even-better 282.2% return on total capital (which ranks #9).
Chicago Bridge and Iron Company N.V. (
CBI
):
Coming in at #2, this $1.8 billion market cap firm was founded more
than a century ago in Chicago as a bridge designer and builder.
Today, it's based in The Netherlands, and is involved in
engineering, procurement and construction services for customers in
the energy and natural resource industries. And it does that quite
well, currently posting a 17.5% earnings yield (#37 in the market)
and whopping 346.6% return on total capital (#6).
AmSurg Corp (
AMSG
):
With an earnings yield of 25.5% (#6 in the market) and a return on
total capital of 116.5% (#21), this Nashville-based ambulatory
surgery center owner/operator is the most attractive stock in
At the time of publication, John Reese was long ARO, IMO, and
MTD.